Mavericks vs. Suns Odds: Winning in the NBA Playoffs isn’t easy, and it’s certainly not a given.
The Lakers are preparing for their second straight NBA Finals appearance after finishing with the best record in the league (64-18). The defending Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns were expected to cruise through the playoffs.
When the Suns’ leading scorer Devin Booker hurt his hamstring in Game 6. They found themselves in a dogfight, needing a great performance from Chris Paul in Game 6 to go to the Western Conference Semifinals. They’ll face the Dallas Mavericks, who swept the Utah Jazz in six games to earn Luka Doncic’s first series victory.
While the Suns were vulnerable in the first round, the Mavericks may be a better matchup because they swept the season series and have won the last nine meetings. The Mavericks’ most recent victory was on November 29, 2019. Despite this, the Suns are big favorites in the series at -295/+240, and Game 1 will be held at the Footprint Center.
Opening as massive underdogs, they shocked everyone by taking a 2-1 lead in Game 4 when Doncic returned. The Mavericks proved that they’re more than just Doncic’s heliocentric offense with solid play from Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points, 4.2 assists, and 4.8 rebounds. They eventually shut out the Jazz in six games after his return, advancing to the Western Conference playoffs.
While the Suns have had their number in recent games, Doncic has only appeared in one of the three this season, putting up 28 points on 9-of-23 (39.1%) shooting, eight assists, and eight rebounds.
Despite a terrible shooting night, the Mavericks led 89-80 in the fourth quarter. Despite playing their third game in four nights following back-to-back victories over the Toronto Raptors. In which all starters played significant minutes.
When Booker hurt his hamstring in Game 2 against the Pelicans. The Suns found themselves in an unexpectedly difficult First Round series. In 32 minutes, he scored 13 points on 5-of-12 shooting and 1-of-6 from 3-point range.
While Booker sank a 3-pointer to put the Suns up 106-104, it’s unclear whether he’s fully healed. If that’s the case, the Mavericks could be in for a long series, as he’s dominated them in the past. Booker has averaged 23.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in three games this season.
Paul has demonstrated that he is the Point God and can manage a game like few others. Paul scored 33 points on 14-of-14 shooting with eight assists and five rebounds when the Suns needed him the most, rallying his team back from a 10-point halftime disadvantage.
ake the most significant percentage (48.1%) against a Mavericks team that is 25th in the opponent midrange frequency (33.2 percent ).
It is a challenging matchup, but I believe the Mavericks have a real chance to win this series because of their ability to shoot 3s consistently and create a math problem for a Suns team that excels in the midrange.
The Suns have been a top-tier club all season, but they’re out of options. They’re a perimeter-oriented squad that thrives in the midrange, but they don’t play Ayton nearly as often as they should. Overall, I expect the Mavericks’ 3-point lead to be significant, and I believe you have to give them the offensive edge with Booker only one game back from his hamstring injury.
The Mavericks are one of the stronger road teams in the league, going 25-17 ATS on the road. They’ll be up against a Suns squad that’s only 19-22 ATS at home this season, indicating that the Suns have been overvalued at home. My model agrees, putting the Suns closer to a pick’em than the market’s -5.5.
Mavericks vs. Suns Odds
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